– TNM underperforms in general elections
By Lisa Hamilton
THE debated results of Region Four aside, one can conclude that the Liberty and Justice Party (LJP) was the best performing newcomer in the General Elections while The New Movement (TNM) the worst.
Even in the Regional Elections, where results often mimic the General, the LJP maintained the lead amongst small parties while the Organisation for the Victory of the People (OVP) which contested only Region Four, performed the worst.
Considering the fact that it is currently being debated in the High Court whether a recount is needed for the results for Region Four, the Guyana Chronicle analysed the performance of small/new parties in the nine other Administrative regions declared.
GENERAL ELECTIONS
At the General Election and with Region Four’s votes excluded, the LPJ secured 1,906 votes surpassing Change Guyana (CG) by 795 votes as the latter party gained 1,111.
Coming close behind was A New and United Guyana (ANUG) which secured 899 votes and leaving a large gap between itself and parties such as the People’s Republic Party with 475 votes; the United Republican Party (URP) with 303 votes; The Citizenship Initiative (TCI) with 217 votes and TNM with 99 votes.
However, if one were to include the debated results for Region Four it would show TCI surpassing the URP. The LJP, however, maintains its lead.
General Election results inclusive of the Region Four results declared include: LJP – 2,663; ANUG -2,288; CG – 2024; PRP – 858; TCI – 679; URP – 394 and TNM 230.
All of the small parties gained their highest support from Region Four except for the LJP which pulled its highest support from Region 7. In other words, while the LJP gained 757 votes in the debated results of Region Four, it gained 879 votes in Region 7.
REGIONAL ELECTIONS
At the Regional Election and with Region Four’s votes excluded, the LJP still out-performed other small parties. The LJP gained 1,947 votes surpassing CG by 834 as the latter party gained 1,113 votes.
Some way behind is the URP with 811 votes followed by the PRP with 443 and the Federal United Party (FUP) with 147 votes. These results do not include the OVP as they exclude Region Four, the only district the party contested.
However, include these contested results and once again the LJP remains in the lead but the PRP came close to the UPR almost surpassing it.
Regional Election results inclusive of the Region Four results declared include: LJP – 2,704; CG – 2026; URP – 902; PRP – 826; FUP – 147 and OVP 117.
Only CG, OVP and the PRP gained their most support from Region Four. The LJP secured its highest support from Region Seven where it locked in 925 votes; the URP gained its highest from Region Three where it secured 179 votes and, for the FUP, votes were only shown for Region Six at 147.
THE JONINDER PARTIES
While several of the parties mentioned above refused the option, LJP, ANUG and TMN had entered into a joinder of lists many weeks before the March 2, 2020 elections which will see their votes being counted collectively during tabulation.
It is the first time that such an agreement was made in Guyana’s Elections and the parties signed an agreement which details that should they collectively win a seat, they will share their time in the National Assembly by 1/3 with the party with the largest contribution nominating the first member.
If one were to add to total votes of these parties in the General Elections without Region Four’s contributions it would show a collective of 2,904 votes but with Region Four’s contributions, it shows a total of 5,181 votes.
In 2015, one seat in the National Assembly was worth a little over 6,000 votes.
While the Guyana Chronicle cannot state definitively what one seat will be worth in the 2020 elections, it can rightfully assume that this number will be higher based on a higher voter turnout expected from a larger Official List of Electors (OLE).
In 2015, there were 570,786 eligible voters while in 2020 there were 661,378 eligible voters, an increase of 90,592.
One can argue that had the LJP and ANUG teamed up with Change Guyana, they would have stood a better chance at pulling more votes across the Regions.
However, it is still to be determined whether — even with the three top contesting small parties in a hypothetical joinder of lists — they would have still met the cut for a single seat in the National Assembly.
Source: https://issuu.com/guyanachroniclee-paper/docs/guyana_chronicle_epaper_03_10_2020