Dear Editor
“THE greatest derangement of the mind is to believe in something because one wishes it to be so” – Louis Pasteur. But that is exactly how our minds work. We tend to take new information and try to fit them into pre-existing beliefs. Psychologists refer to this cognitive function as ‘confirmation bias.’
Political strategists and communication specialists understand the importance of confirmation bias, and they make full use of it. The US-based public relations firm Mercury Public Affairs, which is advising the PPP likely understands how confirmation bias works and it appears that they successfully leveraged its power.
To understand how confirmation bias works, take as an example the allegations of sexual assault against Donald Trump during the 2016 US elections cycle. Many people were offended and angry that Trump was able to continue his campaign even after so many women came forward. Many of those same people now completely brush aside allegations of sexual assault made against Joe Biden. Why? Because people were told that Trump disrespects women, and then the allegations of sexual assault began to surface.
So, the allegations began to fit the narrative, and people believed. With Joe Biden, there was no such ‘preparatory’ work and so the allegations of sexual assault against him are unlikely to have any meaningful impact.
In preparing for the Guyana 2020 elections, The PPP through “Mercury” employed similar techniques used against Trump in 2016. They prepared for their post-elections plans by making sure the western diplomats believe that David Granger, a PNC leader, would rig the 2020 elections. Then when the PPP presented their own Statements of Poll, those diplomats naturally saw that as confirmation of what they already believed to be true.
The problem for APNU+AFC is that confirmation bias also causes people to ignore or disregard evidence that may contradict what they already believe to be true. This explains why the media in Guyana, the diplomatic community and all those who believe that Granger would rig the elections are now ignoring or playing down new evidence suggesting that it is the PPP who tried to rig the elections. The new evidence does not fit with what the mind believes.
Another challenge confronting the APNU+AFC coalition is how to win support for its concern that irregularities are being uncovered during the recount process. The PPP has already signalled its strategy – relying on what people were made to believe: that this exercise is a recount. Throughout the process, everyone, including President Granger has referred to the exercise as a recount. That single word is what shaped the perception of this process in peoples’ minds.
As the election verification process continues, it is important that Guyanese voters and those international support groups are reminded that David Granger is seeking to ensure that democracy prevails in Guyana. They must be reminded that it was the APNU+AFC that made sure that local government elections were held on time, even though the coalition was completely unprepared and took a thrashing at the local polls. They must also be reminded that democracy cannot prevail if parties engage in election crimes such as vote-buying, ID sharing and any other means designed to steal an election. Democracy is not just a word to be uttered whenever it suits the moment.
Guyana’s democracy has a unique opportunity to solidify. After decades of questionable elections and no local government elections, we now have for the first time a higher level of faith and confidence in the electoral process. But we can easily squander this opportunity if we allow electoral irregularities to pass without objections. And it is the media that can play the critical role of ensuring that does not happen.
Reading the three main newspapers in Guyana, one sees two of them completely ignoring or disregarding the reports that ballot boxes were found with what seems to be evidence of fraud. Again, it is the confirmation bias at work. The evidence does not support the pre-conceived belief that the PNC would rig the elections, so it is disregarded. And since no one believes that the PPP would do such a horrible deed as to rig an election, then the evidence must be wrong.
Respectfully
Max Mohamed
Source: https://issuu.com/guyanachroniclee-paper/docs/guyana_chronicle_epaper_10_05_2020