Dear Editor
THE call by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for President Granger to ‘step aside,’ even while the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) continues to dither over who is the winner of the March 2 elections should raise alarm bells throughout Guyana. Pompeo’s behaviour gives one the impression that he sees Guyana as an American colony, and one whose elections he can direct from Foggy Bottom. While he claims that his interest is the preservation of democracy, his call for the President to ‘step aside’ even before a winner has been declared flies in the face of democracy. But Pompeo’s behaviour may have nothing to do with Guyana’s democracy, and everything to do with Trump’s re-election campaign.
U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing for re-election on November 6. His path to victory depends on winning Florida, a key battleground state. And to win Florida, Mr. Trump needs the support of Hispanic voters in that state. Historically, Republican presidential candidates have relied on the anti-Castro emotions among Cuban exiles to take them over the top in Florida. But recently, the younger generation of Cuban-Americans with little interests in anti-Cuban policies have not supported Republican candidates with the same zest as did their grandparents. To offset this trend, Trump needs to win the support of other Florida Hispanics, including the Venezuelan community. It seems therefore, that Trump’s hawkish Venezuela policy is an element within his 2020 election campaign strategy.
Meanwhile, Venezuela is also preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for December 6, less than five months from now. The Venezuela Supreme Court earlier this year suspended the leadership of two of the country’s main opposition parties, replacing them with allies of embattled President Nicolas Maduro. That decision increased the chances that Maduro and his allies will likely remain entrenched for some time. Should those elections proceed as planned, U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido risks further loss of momentum as Venezuelans are likely to lose hope in his abilities to defeat President Maduro. For Juan Guaido, a U.S.-backed military option is becoming increasingly attractive, but any such operation to dislodge Maduro through military force must take place before the December 6 elections.
The ‘restoration of democracy’ in Venezuela would give Mr. Trump a much-needed foreign policy victory, especially since his other foreign policy hopes are not being realised: his North Korean plan has failed; his Palestinian breakthrough has stalled; Iran continues to survive his maximum-sanction campaign and ISIS continues to regenerate itself after the death of successive leaders. Removing Nicolas Maduro seems to be his last chance to claim a foreign policy win before the November 6 elections.
Should a military operation succeed in ‘restoring democracy’ in Venezuela before Floridians go to the polls on November 6, it will likely increase the chances of Trump winning Florida, and therefore win re-election. It will also help Juan Guaido’s hopes of removing Maduro before Venezuelans have a chance to go to the polls in their country on December 6.
Recent events seem to point in the direction that preparations are underway for a military operation against Venezuela. The United States has for the first time challenged Venezuela’s claim of territorial sea extending 12 miles from its coast. On June 24, Reuters reported that a “U.S. Navy ship navigated near the Venezuelan coast on Tuesday in what the U.S. military’s Southern Command called a ‘freedom of navigation operation’.” And on July 16, U.S. SOUTHCOM reported that “USS Pinckney (DDG-91) “challenged Venezuela’s excessive maritime claim in international waters.” The USS Pinckney serves as part of the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group operating in the Region.
On the same day that the Pinckney was sailing off the coast of Venezuela, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Guyana’s President David Granger to “step aside,” even though Guyana’s elections commission has not yet declared a winner of the March 2, 2020 general elections. Their unwillingness to wait for the conclusion of the democratic process suggests that Bolsonaro and Pompeo are becoming increasingly impatient that President Granger continues to remain in office.
One can speculate that the reason for their impatience is that a U.S.-backed military operation against Venezuela somehow depends on the use of Guyana’s territory. And since President Granger has repeatedly made it clear that his administration will adhere to the principle of non-interference in other country’s internal affairs, one can conclude that Bolsonaro and Pompeo view David Granger as an obstacle to the success of their Venezuela plan. Their frustration can lead one to assume that the execution of such a Venezuela plan might be imminent. President Trump’s re-election depends on the success of that plan and President David Granger stands in the way. That is likely the reason behind Pompeo’s decision to sideline GECOM and to unilaterally determine the winner of Guyana’s elections.
Time will tell how David Granger fares against this Goliath.
Respectfully
Max Mohamed
Source: https://issuu.com/guyanachroniclee-paper/docs/guyana_chronicle_e-paper_7-19-2020